The 2024 US presidential election race remains highly competitive on prediction markets, with odds tightening recently on Polymarket, the leading blockchain-based prediction platform.
As of press time, the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market on Polymarket shows an extremely close contest between the frontrunners. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are currently in a dead heat, with each candidate receiving 50% of user predictions.
This represents the closest odds seen on the platform since mid-September, reflecting the volatile and unpredictable nature of the current political landscape.
Special Counsel Jack Smith submits private criminal charges against Trump
The tightening of odds comes amid a new development in the ongoing legal challenges surrounding the 2020 election. Special Counsel Jack Smith has filed new documents related to his investigation into attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, amending to navigate the Supreme Court ruling around Presidential immunity.
The filing presents a detailed account of Trump’s actions based on testimony from insiders within his circle. The filing alleges that Trump had planned to declare victory regardless of the election results, with the intention of excluding mail-in ballots that he believed favored Biden. One campaign advisor to Trump allegedly told a private group days before the election that the plan was to take advantage of the delay in mail-in ballot counting to their advantage,
“And what Trump’s going to do is just declare victory. Right? He’s going to declare victory. That doesn’t mean he’s the winner, he’s just going to say he’s the winner.”
According to the filing, by Nov. 13, 2020, Trump was aware that he lacked evidence of election fraud and had lost legal challenges that could have altered the election outcome. The filing further details Trump’s interactions with Vice President Mike Pence, who repeatedly refused to participate in efforts to overturn the election results.
The document suggests that even after the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump continued efforts to stop the certification process, hiring new lawyers who were willing to continue the plan. One claim in the filing states,
“The evidence demonstrates that the defendant knew his fraud claims were false because he continued to make those claims even after his close advisors – acting not in an official capacity but in a private or Campaign-related capacity, him they were not true.”
However, the filing appears to have had little adverse effects on Trump’s Polymarket odds, as his chances have recently seen an uptick. The filing appears to have emboldened his support on Polymarket, perhaps aligning with claims of politicization of the justice system.
One thing the filing implicitly highlights is that blockchain technology should be adopted in voting systems to avoid such scenarios in the future. An immutable ledger recording legitimate votes would eliminate exactly these situations and ensure the integrity of a critically important geopolitical region’s democratic status.
While blockchain-based prediction markets are a solid advancement in gauging public sentiment around political events, utilizing this technology within the elections is arguably far more critical.
US Election odds 2024 (Polymarket)
Polymarket activity continues to thrive through election betting
Polymarket has seen a surge in activity and user engagement in recent months as the 2024 election draws nearer. In September, the platform reported $533.51 million in trading volume, an increase of $61.51 million compared to August. The number of active users also climbed to 90,037, representing a 41% rise from the previous month.
The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market has been particularly active, generating $89 million in 30-day volume. This high level of engagement emphasizes Polymarket users’ intense interest in the upcoming election.
The platform’s growth has been driven by increased interest in decentralized prediction markets, particularly as global events like elections and geopolitical tensions have captured public attention. Polymarket’s blockchain-based technology offers users a transparent and secure environment for betting on event outcomes.
With the election just over a month away, demand for these prediction markets is expected to remain high. However, analysts are closely watching to see whether interest will taper off after November. Polymarket’s ability to diversify its markets beyond elections and focus on user experience could be crucial in maintaining momentum post-election.
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