TLDR:
Trump leads Harris by 15% on Polymarket, the largest gap so far
Trump favored in 6 out of 7 swing states according to betting odds
Betting volumes on Polymarket’s election market near $2 billion
Harris maintains slim lead only in Nevada among swing states
Betting odds have accurately predicted 77% of presidential elections in last 35 years
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, betting odds on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket indicate a growing lead for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris.
The latest data shows Trump with a 15 percentage point advantage, the largest gap between the two candidates recorded on the platform to date.
Polymarket users are currently betting on an approximate 58% chance that Republican candidate Donald Trump will win the election, compared to a 43.1% chance for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. This significant spread in the odds has caught the attention of political observers and market analysts alike.
The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market on Polymarket has become one of the most active election betting contracts this political cycle.
With less than three weeks until Election Day on November 4, betting volumes for this outcome have approached $2 billion. Trump has captured the majority of this volume, worth over $561 million, while Harris trails with $381 million.
Trump’s odds have improved in nearly every swing state, according to Polymarket data. The former president is now favored to win in six out of seven battleground states that are likely to determine the election outcome.
These include Arizona (68% chance), Georgia (64% chance), Pennsylvania (54% chance), Michigan (52% chance), North Carolina (63% chance), and Wisconsin (52% chance).
The only swing state where Harris maintains a slim lead is Nevada, where she holds a 51% chance of victory compared to Trump’s 49%. This state-by-state breakdown suggests a race that has shifted in Trump’s favor in the Electoral College, despite Harris maintaining a lead in the popular vote prediction.
Betting odds have shown a strong track record in recent decades. According to aggregates by Bookmakers Review, betting odds have accurately predicted 77% of the expected candidates winning over the last 35 years in presidential elections.
Both candidates have made efforts to appeal to crypto voters throughout their campaigns. Trump positioned himself as the “crypto president” during a May gala and has since shared pro-Bitcoin rhetoric. Harris, on the other hand, has taken a more cautious approach, pledging support for “new innovative technologies” and promising to back crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks to protect investors and increase access to capital formation services.
The integration of Polymarket into Bloomberg’s terminal, a first for a crypto-native protocol, has further legitimized the platform’s role in election forecasting. Additionally, the mention of Polymarket by influential figures like Elon Musk has increased its visibility in the public sphere.
As the election draws nearer, other prediction markets are also gaining traction. Kalshi recently received court approval to list Congressional contracts for U.S. customers, potentially paving the way for offerings around presidential outcomes. Projects like Wintermute are reportedly exploring entering the on-chain prediction business as well.
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