TLDR
- VanEck forecasts SOL price to reach $520 by end of 2025, based on projected market cap of $250B and 486M floating tokens
- M2 money supply expected to grow from $21.5T to $22.3T by 2025, potentially boosting crypto markets
- Smart contract platform market predicted to grow 43% to $1.1T by 2025
- Solana’s market share expected to increase from 15% to 22% by end of 2025
- SEC recently acknowledged Grayscale’s SOL ETF filing, marking a shift in regulatory stance
The global investment firm VanEck has released a new forecast predicting that Solana’s SOL token could reach $520 by the end of 2025. This projection comes as part of a broader analysis of the cryptocurrency market and monetary conditions that could drive growth in the smart contract platform sector.
According to VanEck’s latest research, the U.S. M2 money supply is expected to expand from its current level of $21.5 trillion to approximately $22.3 trillion by the end of 2025. This metric, which includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money, has historically shown correlation with cryptocurrency market performance.
The analysis suggests that this increase in money supply could create favorable conditions for cryptocurrency investments. When central banks expand M2 through various monetary policy tools, such as lowering interest rates or implementing quantitative easing measures, it typically results in increased liquidity flowing into various asset classes, including digital currencies.
VanEck’s research team employed an autoregressive (AR) forecast model to analyze historical data and project future values for Solana. Based on this analysis, they estimate that Solana’s market capitalization could reach approximately $250 billion, which would translate to a price of $520 per SOL token, given the projected supply of 486 million floating tokens.
The smart contract platform market, where Solana operates, is projected to experience substantial growth over the next two years. VanEck forecasts this sector to expand by 43%, reaching a total value of $1.1 trillion by the end of 2025.
Currently, Solana holds approximately 15% of the smart contract platform market share. However, VanEck’s analysis suggests this percentage could increase to 22% by the end of 2025, representing a substantial gain in market position.
The firm bases this optimistic outlook on several key metrics, including Solana’s growing developer community, increasing share of decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes, rising revenue streams, and expanding active user base.
Recent regulatory developments have also contributed to the positive outlook for Solana. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has shown a shift in its approach to Solana-based investment products. This was evidenced by their recent acknowledgment of Grayscale’s SOL ETF filing, giving the commission until October to make a decision on the application.
This represents a notable change from the SEC’s previous stance, where they had been reluctant to engage with SOL-based ETF applications and had instructed Cboe to remove previously submitted 19b-4 forms for similar products.
VanEck itself is among several U.S. financial institutions that submitted applications for Solana ETFs in 2024, demonstrating growing institutional interest in providing regulated investment vehicles for SOL exposure.
The firm’s analysis takes into account multiple factors affecting Solana’s ecosystem, including technical developments, user adoption metrics, and market dynamics. Their forecast model incorporates historical price data and market behavior patterns to generate these projections.
The monetary policy environment plays a crucial role in VanEck’s analysis. The predicted growth in M2 money supply suggests potential increased liquidity in the financial system, which historically has benefited cryptocurrency markets.
Solana’s technical capabilities and growing ecosystem of decentralized applications continue to attract developer activity. VanEck notes this as a key factor in their market share growth predictions.
The platform’s increasing share of DEX volumes indicates growing user adoption and trading activity within the Solana ecosystem. This metric, combined with rising revenue figures, supports VanEck’s bullish outlook on SOL’s future value.
The most recent development in this story came on Thursday, when the SEC acknowledged Grayscale’s SOL ETF filing, starting the formal review process that will conclude by October.
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