TLDR
- American Bitcoin shares plunged 39% on Dec. 2 after lock-up expiration, down 72% overall since September launch
- Roth Capital issued first Buy rating with $4 target, highlighting mining-treasury hybrid model advantages
- Company holds 4,783 Bitcoin after $38 million purchase, ranking among top 25 public treasury holders
- Mining operations generate cash flow unlike pure treasury plays, allowing strategic Bitcoin purchases
- Roth projects holdings will reach 26,000 coins by second half of 2027
American Bitcoin stock got crushed last week. The Eric Trump-backed miner saw shares drop 39% in a single day as early investors sold after restrictions lifted.
The Dec. 2 selloff came when the lock-up period on June private placement shares expired. Investors didn’t waste time heading for the exits. Shares closed Wednesday at $1.94, down 5.4%.
The stock has now fallen 72% since beginning trading in September. Not the trajectory anyone hoped for from the Trump-connected operation.
But Roth Capital thinks the market is missing the bigger picture. The firm initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $4 price target Wednesday. That implies a 106% gain from current prices.
Different Model, Different Opportunity
Analyst Darren Aftahi sees value in American Bitcoin’s hybrid approach. Unlike pure treasury companies, this operation actually mines Bitcoin.
The company announced Wednesday it holds 4,783 Bitcoin. It added 416 coins worth roughly $38 million in the prior week alone.
The satoshis per share metric hit 507, jumping over 17% in one month. This number shows shareholders exactly how much Bitcoin backs their stock.
Most Bitcoin treasuries follow the Strategy blueprint. Sell stock and bonds, buy crypto, repeat. American Bitcoin does something different.
The company mines Bitcoin while competitors shifted to AI and computing. Its Hut 8 partnership provides infrastructure, power, and operational support.
Mining creates cash flow when profitable. That lets American Bitcoin buy more coins when market conditions make sense. Pure treasury operations don’t have this flexibility.
Roth believes this structure lets the company compound holdings faster. The firm forecasts 26,000 coins by late 2027 through mining and purchases.
American Bitcoin went public via reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. The Trump brothers and Hut 8 retained about 98% of the combined entity.
The merger raised $220 million through equity offerings. Management earmarked those funds for Bitcoin and mining equipment. They’ve stated mining will drive reserve growth over market purchases.
Trump Name Recognition Creates Access
Eric Trump serves as chief strategy officer. Donald Trump Jr. is a major investor. Roth argues this connection means better capital access and market awareness.
The company’s accounting includes purchased coins awaiting settlement plus Bitcoin in custody or designated for miners. This transparency shows the total cryptocurrency position across acquisition stages.
Bitcoin gained 1.4% in the 24 hours before Wednesday’s announcement. American Bitcoin now ranks among the top 25 public Bitcoin treasury holders after just three months of public trading.
Roth disclosed it provided investment banking services to American Bitcoin and Hut 8 over the past year. The firm also has connections to other Trump-linked ventures including SPAC underwriting roles.
Only a few analysts currently cover American Bitcoin. Roth provided the company’s first Buy rating since its September debut. The disclosed treasury numbers represent rapid accumulation establishing the firm among the fastest-growing Bitcoin operations in the publicly traded mining sector.
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