Bitcoin’s recent price action has sparked intense debate among analysts and investors.
As the leading cryptocurrency hovers near key levels, questions arise: Has Bitcoin already reached its market top, or is there still room for another explosive rally? Historical data, on-chain metrics, and technical indicators provide contrasting signals, making this a critical moment for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Has #Bitcoin $BTC reached a market top, or is another monster rally still ahead?
Let’s dive in!
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 30, 2025
While some indicators suggest the market may be peaking, others point to significant upside potential. Factors such as realized profits, miner selling, declining capital inflows, and reduced network activity raise concerns. However, historical cycle patterns and technical models indicate that Bitcoin might still have room to run before reaching its ultimate top.
Selling Pressure and Capital Outflows Signal Market Weakness
A key concern among investors is the rising selling pressure in the market. Historically, Bitcoin market tops have coincided with significant spikes in realized profits. December 2024 saw over $3 billion in profits realized, which has fueled speculation that a local top might be forming.
In addition to profit-taking, miners have added to the selling pressure. In mid-January 2025, Bitcoin miners sold over 20,000 BTC—worth approximately $2 billion—introducing a considerable amount of new supply into the market. This selling behavior is not unusual, as miners often offload holdings to cover operational costs, but the scale of recent sales has raised eyebrows.
Long-term holders (LTHs), who are typically more reluctant to sell, have also started offloading their holdings. Over the past week alone, the supply held by LTHs has decreased by 75,000 BTC, indicating that even the most patient investors are securing profits.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, capital inflows into the crypto market have sharply declined. Since December 10, 2024, inflows have plummeted by 63.3%, dropping from $134.65 billion to $43.37 billion. This reduction in fresh capital suggests that new investors are hesitant to enter the market at current levels, further increasing the risk of a downturn.
Network activity has also declined, with Bitcoin’s transaction volume and wallet interactions dropping to their lowest levels since November 2024. This decline in market participation could be a sign that enthusiasm is waning, a pattern that often precedes corrections in past cycles.
Can Bitcoin Still Push Higher?
Despite the increasing signs of market weakness, several models and technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak.
One widely followed metric is Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to enter its final cycle rally once it surpasses 2.4 times its 200-day SMA. Currently, this level sits at $184,600, meaning Bitcoin could still have room for significant upside before hitting a peak.
The Mayer Multiple, another key metric used to gauge Bitcoin’s valuation relative to its long-term trends, also supports the idea of further gains. This model suggests that Bitcoin’s potential market top could be around $182,000.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has recently formed a bullish cup-and-handle pattern, a classic setup that often precedes large rallies. If this breakout plays out as expected, Bitcoin could reach a target of $276,400, reinforcing the argument that the current cycle has not yet peaked.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving event—scheduled for April 2025—also supports the idea that the bull market still has room to grow. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have triggered parabolic rallies within six to twelve months. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin’s final market top could occur between May and October 2025.
Exchange Balances and ETF Impact
Another factor influencing Bitcoin’s supply dynamics is the shift in exchange balances. Over the past several months, Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges have dropped from 3.1 million BTC in July 2024 to 2.7 million BTC. While this decline is often interpreted as a supply shock—indicating that investors are moving their holdings into private wallets—most of this movement is actually due to Bitcoin flowing into ETF custodian wallets.
#Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dropped to 2.7M $BTC from 3.1M #BTC in July 2024. While often seen as a supply shock from investor withdrawals, most of this decline is due to coins moving into #ETFs custodian wallets, primarily Coinbase: https://t.co/sWo1JFfbOD pic.twitter.com/Ib6KWJK9qv
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 30, 2025
Since the SEC approved Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutional demand has surged. Eight out of the eleven approved Bitcoin ETFs have chosen Coinbase as their custodian, consolidating a significant amount of BTC under one entity. As a result, while exchange balances appear to be shrinking, the reality is that much of this Bitcoin is simply transitioning into institutional custody rather than being permanently removed from circulation.
When adjusting for non-Coinbase ETFs (such as FBTC and HODL), total Bitcoin holdings across exchange wallets and ETF custodians remain around 3 million BTC—similar to levels seen in January 2024. This suggests that the apparent decline in exchange balances reflects a structural shift in market dynamics rather than a true supply shock.
On January 29, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of $92.0895 million, and the Ethereum spot ETF had a total net outflow of $4.8176 million. https://t.co/59u0BnEqLG
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) January 30, 2025
Institutional demand remains strong, as evidenced by Bitcoin ETF inflows. On January 29, 2025, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $92.1 million, indicating that institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin despite broader market uncertainties.
Key Levels to Watch
With Bitcoin’s price hovering near critical levels, market participants are closely watching support and resistance zones. The most immediate support level lies at $97,877—a major accumulation zone. If Bitcoin holds above this level, it could act as a launchpad for the next leg of the bull run.
However, a break below $97,877 and $91,700 could signal a deeper correction, potentially driving Bitcoin down to $74,000. Such a decline would likely shake out weak hands but could also present a prime buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Did you know that there are currently 42.26M wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC, making up 77.4% of the existing 54.62M non-empty wallets? We go through some of the simple ways you can analyze supply distribution for any asset in our latest insight.
https://t.co/yRIl1Agi6n
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 30, 2025
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is currently at a crucial inflection point. While rising selling pressure, declining capital inflows, and weakening network activity raise concerns about a potential market top, historical price models and technical patterns suggest that the bull market may still have room to run.
If Bitcoin can maintain key support levels and continue attracting institutional demand through ETFs, it could push toward new all-time highs. However, a failure to hold critical price zones could trigger a sharp correction, testing investor conviction.
As the market awaits Bitcoin’s next major move, all eyes remain on whether fresh capital will enter the space or if the recent selling pressure will lead to a deeper retracement. The coming months will determine whether Bitcoin’s bull cycle is nearing its end—or if another explosive rally is still ahead.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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