TLDR
- Bitcoin currently trades below the “extreme euphoria” threshold of $132,400 according to Glassnode’s MVRV Pricing Bands
- Historical data shows BTC spent only 5% of trading days above the 3.2 MVRV level, marking rare peak periods
- Current Bitcoin price at $93,400 sits between the 2.4 ($99,300) and 3.2 ($132,400) MVRV bands
- Bear market bottoms typically form around the 0.8 pricing band ($33,100)
- Average investor cost basis sits at $41,300 (1.0 MVRV level)
Bitcoin currently trades at $93,400, but according to new data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the cryptocurrency hasn’t yet reached the extreme euphoria levels that typically mark market peaks.
This insight comes from analysis of Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands, a model that helps track market sentiment and potential price turning points.
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market value against the value investors initially put into the market. This metric serves as a key indicator of market conditions, helping identify potential market tops and bottoms. When the ratio exceeds 1, investors hold more value than their initial investment, indicating overall market profits.
Glassnode’s analysis reveals several key price levels in their MVRV Pricing Bands model. The current Bitcoin price sits between two important bands: the 2.4 level at $99,300 and the 3.2 level at $132,400. Historical data shows that the 2.4 level often indicates a heating market, while the 3.2 level typically signals extreme market optimism.
The data becomes particularly interesting when looking at Bitcoin’s historical performance above the 3.2 MVRV level. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has spent only about 5% of its trading days above this threshold, highlighting the rarity of such peak periods in the market.
Despite #Bitcoin‘s impressive rally last year, MVRV levels above 3.2 – the typical threshold for extreme euphoria – haven’t been reached this cycle. If #BTC were to reach this level, it would correspond to a price of ~$132K: https://t.co/aqPpGPMKgB pic.twitter.com/Vf1Hj9gD9M
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 8, 2025
At the lower end of the scale, the 0.8 pricing band, currently at $33,100, has historically marked bear market bottoms. This level represents periods when market-wide losses were common and selling pressure typically eased.
The 1.0 MVRV level, positioned at $41,300, represents another important threshold. This price point reflects the average cost basis for Bitcoin investors across the network, essentially showing the breakeven point for the typical investor.
Market data shows Bitcoin currently trades well above these lower bands, indicating a strong recovery from previous bear market conditions. However, the cryptocurrency has yet to surpass the upper bands that have historically marked market peaks in previous cycles.
The MVRV model suggests that Bitcoin still has room for price growth before reaching levels historically associated with market tops. Previous bull markets typically peaked above the 3.2 MVRV level, implying potential upside from current prices around $93,400.
Recent price action shows Bitcoin down more than 3% over the past week, demonstrating ongoing market volatility despite the overall upward trend. This movement occurs as traders and investors monitor various metrics to gauge market conditions.
The current market structure differs from previous cycles in several ways. Bitcoin now operates in an environment with spot ETFs, increased institutional adoption, and evolving regulatory frameworks. These factors could influence how prices interact with historical MVRV bands.
Looking at the broader picture, Bitcoin has maintained strong performance above the cost basis of the average investor. The current price represents a substantial premium over the 1.0 MVRV level of $41,300, indicating sustained profit for many market participants.
The position between the 2.4 and 3.2 MVRV bands suggests the market remains in an optimistic phase without reaching extreme levels. Historical patterns indicate that prices can sustain these levels for extended periods before any major market shifts occur.
Recent trading patterns show Bitcoin maintaining levels above $90,000, despite periodic pullbacks. The cryptocurrency continues to trade within these established MVRV bands as market participants monitor various metrics for signs of potential trend changes.
The latest data from Glassnode emphasizes that while Bitcoin trades at relatively high levels, it hasn’t yet entered the zone historically associated with market peaks. The cryptocurrency currently sits at $93,400, below both the 2.4 MVRV band at $99,300 and the 3.2 band at $132,400.
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