Former FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver offered two contrasting interpretations of the presidential race, suggesting that both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could outperform their current poll numbers.
What Happened: Silver wrote in an opinion piece in the New York Times on Wednesday that his “gut” says Donald Trump will emerge victorious, but he cautioned that anxious Democrats should not value his intuition.
In a blog post titled “Why Harris could beat her polls,” Silver later elaborated that even a typical polling error of around 3 points could lead to one candidate sweeping all seven key battleground states. According to Silver’s simulations, “the most common outcome was Trump winning all 7 swing states: this happened 24 percent of the time. And the next most common was a Harris sweep, which occurred in 15 percent of simulations.”
Silver dismissed the “shy Trump voter” …
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